Dynamics, Risk and Management Performance of Urban Real Estate Inventory in Yangtze River Delta

(1) Background: Inventory management is a key point in the achievement of the virtuous cycle and sustainable development of the real estate industry. In response to the practical needs of city-based policies, this paper constructs a new research approach of “evolution dynamics—risk analysis—performance evaluation—policy design” of real estate inventory, and conducts a case study on the Yangtze River Delta. (2) Methods: This paper studies the change characteristics, trends and spatial patterns of real estate inventory changes in the Yangtze River Delta based on Geographic Information System software, and quantitatively evaluates the risk level and management performance of real estate inventory by introducing the Boston Consulting Group Matrix for corporate management and the Super- Data Envelopment Analysis Model for operations research, providing a basis for policy design. (3) Results: First, the “destocking” policy has gained results to some extent and diversified the inventory evolution, thus alleviating or curbing the negative trend in most cities. Second, the real estate inventory in the Yangtze River Delta is divided into high, low, potential and zero pressure zones by risk levels, and the proportion of cities with increased, decreased and unchanged risk levels is essentially the same. Third, the average real estate inventory management performance index has been steadily improving, but overall, it is still unsatisfactory, with cities in an effective state accounting for 40% and below for a long time. Fourth, real estate inventory and its management performance both show significant spatial effects, with cold and hot spot cities characterized by a “center-periphery” spatial pattern in geographical distribution, and the cities in the study area are classified into four types: super-efficiency, efficiency, inefficiency, and super-inefficiency. Fifth, the real estate inventory in most cities is continuing to grow positively, and a small number of cities have been in the high-risk zone for a long time or become new members of the high-risk zone, making the government and enterprises still faced up with great pressure and challenges in inventory management with the risk level further increased but management performance growing slowly. (4) Conclusions: The study area is divided into four types of policy areas, that is, red key area, yellow important area, green auxiliary area, and path-dependent area, and suggestions for optimization are made from the perspectives of risk control, performance improvement, benchmarking recommendation, and redundancy governance, providing a basis for the government’s real estate inventory management policy design and the enterprise’s high-quality development decision.

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